Cash Buyers Lift Housing
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Monday, February 28, 2011
Monday, February 21, 2011
Mortgage delinquencies lowest in 2 years
MBA economist: U.S. has 'turned the corner' in foreclosure crisis
By Inman News, Friday, February 18, 2011. The percentage of mortgage holders who were behind on their payments dropped to the lowest level in two years during the fourth quarter of 2010, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today.At 8.22 percent, the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate was down from 9.13 percent during the third quarter and 9.47 percent from a year ago.
The percentage of mortgages in foreclosure climbed from 4.39 percent during the third quarter to 4.63 percent during the last three months of the year, matching an all-time high.
Fewer loans are entering the foreclosure pipeline: the percentage of loans only one payment past due -- 3.25 percent -- was at the lowest level since 2007, and the foreclosure start rate fell from 1.34 percent during the third quarter to 1.27 percent.
The percentage of loans three payments or more past due was down from an all-time high of 5.02 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2010 to 3.63 percent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010 -- a drop of almost 28 percent over the course of the year. All but two states saw a drop in the 90-plus-day delinquency rate, and the increases in those states were "negligible."
"While delinquency and foreclosure rates are still well above historical norms, we have clearly turned the corner" in the foreclosure crisis, MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said in a statement.
The MBA National Delinquency survey covers 43.6 million loans -- about 88 percent of all outstanding first-lien mortgages. If the survey's results are extrapolated, about 4.1 million homeowners were 30, 60 or 90 days or more behind on their mortgage payments during the fourth quarter, and another 2.3 million were in the foreclosure process.
Economy in Arizona on the Rise
It may not seem like much of a recovery for Arizonans hobbled by job losses or falling home values, but the state's economy actually is improving at a solid clip.
So says Nathaniel Karp, chief economist for BBVA Compass and one of the few bank economists who tracks conditions here.
"Arizona's economic recovery is among the fastest in the country," said Karp, speaking to BBVA Compass clients in Phoenix this week. "And we're seeing a faster recovery compared to a few months ago."
Karp acknowledged challenges remain for both Arizona and the nation. Arizona's state budget is in particularly bad shape, including unfunded pension liabilities, he said.
But he also pointed to relatively strong manufacturing gains and exports, especially in software and other technology items. Other positives include an increase in hours worked for Arizonans with jobs and moderating price declines for home values here.
Karp predicted Arizona's economy would grow 3.4 percent in 2011, better than his projected 3 percent expansion for the U.S.
On the national economy, Karp sees continuing mild inflation and moderately rising interest rates, despite sharper price increases for oil and various other commodities.
He doesn't see commercial real estate bottoming until summer, but said confidence among business leaders had risen after Congress extended income-tax laws and signaled greater clarity in regulation.
Another bank economist who spoke in Phoenix recently, Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust, also sees gradual economic improvement for the nation in 2011.
In an interview, Kasriel said he expected the U.S. economy to grow 3.3 percent this year, helped by exports, consumer spending and a gradual uptick in lending. Housing and state/municipal finances will act as drags. He didn't provide a forecast for Arizona's economy.
Kasriel sees mild inflation, along with slightly higher interest rates. He expects the national unemployment rate, currently at 9 percent, to dip to 8.6 percent by year's end.
"I think the worst is over for housing, and it should show improvements by the end of the year," he said. "Housing now is a better buy than it's been in 40 years."
While Kasriel doesn't see a big drop in the unemployment rate, he said the employment picture had stabilized.
"If you've been able to hang onto a job for the last several years, there's an increasing probability you'll stay employed," he said. "We couldn't have said that two years ago."
So says Nathaniel Karp, chief economist for BBVA Compass and one of the few bank economists who tracks conditions here.
"Arizona's economic recovery is among the fastest in the country," said Karp, speaking to BBVA Compass clients in Phoenix this week. "And we're seeing a faster recovery compared to a few months ago."
Karp acknowledged challenges remain for both Arizona and the nation. Arizona's state budget is in particularly bad shape, including unfunded pension liabilities, he said.
But he also pointed to relatively strong manufacturing gains and exports, especially in software and other technology items. Other positives include an increase in hours worked for Arizonans with jobs and moderating price declines for home values here.
Karp predicted Arizona's economy would grow 3.4 percent in 2011, better than his projected 3 percent expansion for the U.S.
On the national economy, Karp sees continuing mild inflation and moderately rising interest rates, despite sharper price increases for oil and various other commodities.
He doesn't see commercial real estate bottoming until summer, but said confidence among business leaders had risen after Congress extended income-tax laws and signaled greater clarity in regulation.
Another bank economist who spoke in Phoenix recently, Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust, also sees gradual economic improvement for the nation in 2011.
In an interview, Kasriel said he expected the U.S. economy to grow 3.3 percent this year, helped by exports, consumer spending and a gradual uptick in lending. Housing and state/municipal finances will act as drags. He didn't provide a forecast for Arizona's economy.
Kasriel sees mild inflation, along with slightly higher interest rates. He expects the national unemployment rate, currently at 9 percent, to dip to 8.6 percent by year's end.
"I think the worst is over for housing, and it should show improvements by the end of the year," he said. "Housing now is a better buy than it's been in 40 years."
While Kasriel doesn't see a big drop in the unemployment rate, he said the employment picture had stabilized.
"If you've been able to hang onto a job for the last several years, there's an increasing probability you'll stay employed," he said. "We couldn't have said that two years ago."
Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/02/17/20110217economy-arizona-rise-expert-says.html#ixzz1EczXXRrE
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